12/24/09
Early morning on the farm reminds us of how lucky we are to live here.

12/4/09
We’re off with the first load to the winter sale.

12/1/09
Part of Kindergarten is learning to load.

4/20/09
Kentucky Derby fever is in the air.

I’m always looking for a horse to cheer for. We have a local connection to root for this year. It is Win Willie who is trained by “Mac” McLean Robertson, son-in-law of Glenda and Allen Roberts. I wish them the best of luck!

Selfishly, I hope Advice wins only because we have a yearling that we will be selling by his sire, Chapel Royal. However, the best story line is without doubt General Quarters. Who can resist cheering for the owner/trainer of a one horse stable?

I can’t bring myself to bet on the favorites so my angle this year is to go for the May foals. They include Regal Ransom, Musket Man, and Pioneerof the Nile. Being a breeder, I always like to point out that May foals can run a little too.

Who will I bet on? Dunkirk. But I haven’t picked the winner since Giacomo, so don’t put much money on it.

February Photos 2009 (click to enlarge)

Good belly rub

Leading foal

Vying for attention

February 2009

“Do you pay attention to dosage?”
This is a frequently asked question this time of year. My answer is yes and no.

I think the commercial nicking reports and software programs are interesting, but I’m almost always disappointed because they are good at pointing out the obvious, good at recognizing nicks after the fact, and good at making their selections based on horses that are often too far back in the pedigree to be meaningful. But what they’re really good at is convincing breeders and buyers that they have the magic answer to selecting a stakes winner.

I am not a statistician, but I don’t think any of the nicking programs are statistically valid. I am however a beliver in genetics. It would seem more logical to me to go to a geneticist for advice.

Looking at the 2008 Breeders Cup winners, according to Werk Nick ratings, 28% were A nicks, 28% B nicks and the rest were C or lower. Remember these were the winners! I would expect the nicking experts, who make a lot of money advising clients, to do better than that. However, if you are a student of Werk, you will surely learn patience because most likely if you wait a few more weeks, those horses will probably all show up as A nicks. How would you like to be one of the buyers that passed on those BC winners just because they were C or D nicks?

As a point of interest, Country Star is a C, Elusive Diva is a C, and Zenyatta, the best filly in America is only a C+.

Locally, we are going to get skewed results because the nick is rarely with Delineator and your mare by Slewdledo for instance. It is Storm Cat to daughters of Seattle Slew, and those results can be very different.

Also, the nicking experts don’t take into account opportunity. If Matty G., or Cahill Road, or Katowice only bred one Rahy mare and the resulting foal was a stakes winner, what would that mean? If it was not a stakes winner, what would that mean?

Another point of interest, the Secretariat x Crimson Satan cross is considered a great nick. It turns out that of the three stakes winners from 13 runners bred on that cross, two were out of the same mare, Crimson Saint. Bred to Secretariat, she produced SW TERLINGUA $423,896, SW PANCHO VILLA $596,734, Sp Border Run $155,238, and four that couldn’t run much or at all. Bred to Alydar she produced SW ALYDARIEL $52,450. Bred to Nijinshy II, she produced SP Encino $34,900 and BC Mile winner ROYAL ACADEMY $450,000. I would draw the conclusion that Crimson Saint was a great producer, but I wouldn’t say that Secretariat x Crimson Satan was a great nick.

In addition, I don’t understand how anyone can assume that by looking only at the sire lines you can draw any meaningful conclusions. Let’s face it; you are ignoring a minimum of 25% of the pedigree. The further back you go, the more of the pedigree you leave out.

My own experience tends to prejudice my thinking I admit. Looking at the stakes horses that I have bred, only one was an A nick. The rest were C, D or “no rating”. So, the bottom line is I usually look, but I don’t often act on their advice.

1/2/09
A snowy new year! Click photos to enlarge...

Romeo (the teaser)	Winter pictures on the farm.	Winter pictures on the farm.
Winter pictures on the farm.	Tribunal x Campanita (most white on face), Giacomo x Prado’s Joy (grey almost black), and Tribunal x Best Judgement (in the rear).	Yearlings
Yearlings

Updated: 8/21/2010